清中葉東南沿海的糧食作物分布、糧食供需及糧價分析
王業鍵 黃瑩玨這四省包括全國經濟精華所在的長江三角洲以及珠江三角洲等地，是全國人口最稠密和經濟最發達的地區。1820年平均人口密度為每平方公里178人，高於全國平均數的一倍以上。尤其是江蘇長江以南及浙江杭州灣以北各府州，人口密度都在每平方公里400人以上，蘇州府更幾乎高達902人。這些地區因此缺糧也特別嚴重。這四個省分缺糧，主要依賴內陸餘糧省分四川、湖南、江西、安徽、廣西及臺灣島供應。閩、粵二省也有部分米糧從安南、暹羅等地進口。
就這個地區四個首府（蘇州、杭州、泉州、廣州）的米價變動觀察與分析，我們發現各地糧價有溫和上升趨勢。其次，各府糧價都呈現明顯的季節性波動。蘇、杭米價大抵於七、八月達高峰，十月、十一月最低；泉、廣二府高峰均為五月，谷底分別為九月、十一月。第三，各府糧價也呈現大致四年的週期性波動。
從米糧貿易及糧價相關分析可以看出，十八世紀的中國二個樞紐地區——長江三角洲和珠江三角洲——經濟上關聯尚弱。但是，糧食不足地區與有餘地區之間的地域分工與經濟交流至為明顯，各個經濟大區市場關聯性高低各異，但並非孤立。就我們所考察的地區來看，大致可以說，以長江三角洲為中心，地理上與交通運輸上愈接近的地區，市場整合程度愈高。
關鍵詞：兩穫區 缺糧 人口密度 米價 市場整合
The Distribution of Grain Crops, Grain Supply, and an Analysis of Grain Prices on the Southeastern Coast of China in the Middle of the Qing Period
Yeh-chien Wang and Ying-chueh Huang
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
Graduate Institute of History, National Chung Cheng University
Before the middle of the nineteenth century, the southeastern coast, enclosing specifically Jiangsu south of the Huai River, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, ranked the highest in terms of grain shortage in China. For centuries, rice has been the principal crop and staple food in this area. While a single crop of rice predominated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, double-cropping prevailed in the coastal area of Fujian and virtually all throughout Guangdong. In the single crop area, rice of late ripening varieties prevailed except in large areas of Zhejiang where the early ripening rice was grown instead. It should also be noted that cash crops like cotton and mulberries were prevalent on coastal Jiangsu and around Lake Tai.Cropping patterns affect food supply considerably. More important is the density of population in determining the condition of grain markets. For the area as a whole, the density of population was 178 persons per square kilometer in 1820, more than twice the national average. Most striking is the Yangzi Delta (southern Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang) where all prefectures had a population density of more than 400 persons per square kilometer. The highest was Suzhou with approximately 902 persons per square kilometer. Thus, the extent of food shortage was the severest in the delta. Most neighboring provinces inland, however, produced large quantities of rice over and above what their citizens consumed. Accordingly, a flourishing trade developed between the southeastern coast and inland during the Qing period. The coastal area exported industrial goods like textiles, capital, and technical know-how in exchange for grain shipments from Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Sichuan, Guangxi, and the offshore island of Taiwan.
To observe the behavior of grain prices in the area, we have conducted a statistical analysis of rice prices in the four principal prefectures—Suzhou, Hangzhou, Quanzhou, and Guangzhou—from 1741 to 1760. Our major findings are as follows: first, rice prices rose moderately in all prefectures in question; second, there is a clear pattern of seasonal variations in prices. Prices generally peak in July-August and sink to their lowest in October-November in Suzhou and Hangzhou, whereas the peak appears in May and the trough in September/November in Quanzhou and Guangzhou respectively. Third, by and large a four-year cyclical movement is also observable in all prefectures.
Finally, the weak correlation in prices between Suzhou and Guangzhou implies that the two key economic areas, the Yangzi Delta and the Canton Delta, remained poorly integrated in the eighteenth century. However, prices in Quanzhou and Guangzhou and those in Quanzhou and Hangzhou are either highly correlated or nearly so. To conclude, centering on the Yangzi Delta, the shorter is the distance from it, the greater the market integration observable along the coast. Along with our earlier observations on grain trade, it is evident that China’s regions were far from autarkic in the eighteenth century.
Keywords: double-cropping area, food shortage, density of population, rice prices, market integration